After going nearly a month in between home games, Appalachian prepares to host Samford for Homecoming 2011. The ASU line-up will look significantly different from the last time they took the field at Kidd Brewer Stadium, as Jamal Jackson has been named starting quarterback and outside linebacker Demery Brewer has been lost for the season. While Samford is not a team that has given the Mountaineers trouble historically, this is easily the most formidable team the Bulldogs have fielded since the Chris Evans led 2008 squad that ASU defeated 35-24 in Birmingham.
Samford comes into Boone riding a 3-game winning streak and boasting the reigning Southern Conference defensive and offensive players of the week in safety Corey White and running back Fabian Truss. Truss has rushed for 589 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season, while White leads the conference with 3 interceptions and is also the Bulldogs leading tackler with 31. Samford is led offensively by an experienced quarterback in senior Dustin Tallaferro, who has passed for 1,273 yards and 10 touchdowns, as well as holding the SoCon's second highest passer efficiency rating. As a team, the Bulldogs enter this contest 3rd in the conference in scoring offense at 33 points per game and 4th in points allowed with 23.5 points per game.
For the black and gold, the key will be building on the offensive momentum created with the 49-point outburst last weekend in Charleston, as well as making the mental adjustment necessary to defend a more prototypical offense after having the triple option pounded into their heads over the last three weeks. Jamal Jackson will face a tougher test this week, as the Bulldogs will almost certainly be able to apply more pressure than he faced last weekend against The Citadel. However, Jamal is a confident young man that plays very poised and I expect our offense to move the chains.
Last week, Steven Miller and Travaris Cadet each rushed for over 100 yards and found the end zone. The Mountaineers' multiple spread offense is very ineffective without balance, so the ability of our running backs to carry over their success from a week ago will factor largely in the outcome. If Samford is forced to respect the ground game, the passing lanes will open up and allow Jackson to pick apart the Samford secondary. Thus far in his very young career, Jamal has been impressive in his ability to make accurate passes deep over the middle, which is where Brian Quick is a very dangerous weapon.
I have no doubts that the ASU defense is happier than anybody to see an offense that is not a triple option. Based on their last performance against a very talented Chattanooga attack, Appalachian should again be able to spend a fair amount of time in the backfield and pressure Tallaferro into mistakes or incompletions. The availability of Ed Gainey and Lanston Tanyi due to off-field issues is still up in the air, but it is important to recall that ASU posted a dominating defensive performance in their last home game without the benefit of Tanyi or Gainey. James Robinson and Ronald Blair have been very impressive as pass-rushers off the edge as true freshmen, which could lead to another long day for a visiting quarterback making the trip up the mountain.
In my opinion, although improved, this Samford team is not quite on the level necessary to beat the Mountaineers in Boone. I expect a much closer game than the contest last season but between the spark given to the offense after handing the reigns to Jamal Jackson and the gradual improvement of the offensive line, ASU will be able to score enough points to find their way to a victory. The ASU defense is still very young and working on a learning curve but the 30,000 fans at Kidd Brewer Stadium will help them along the way. Appalachian State is 58-4 in their last 62 home games, making it arguably the toughest road win to get in the FCS. The Bulldogs will make a game of this and I expect nothing to come easy, but the speed and home-field advantage of the Mountaineers will prove too big an obstacle for this upstart Samford team to overcome.
My prediction:
Appalachian State 38
Samford 27
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