In what has seemingly become a weekly occurrence, Appalachian faces a tough Southern Conference opponent riding a win streak as they continue their hunt for an unprecedented seventh consecutive conference title. After snapping the winning streaks of Samford (3 games) and Georgia Southern (7 games) at Kidd Brewer Stadium the past two weeks, the Mountaineers now must hit the road to face the Furman Paladins. Furman is currently riding the momentum of handing Wofford their first conference defeat and taking down Chattanooga on the road in consecutive games.
After losing their season opener to Coastal Carolina, the Paladins reeled off victories against The Citadel, Presbyterian and Western Carolina. The hot streak came to a somewhat surprising halt with a home defeat at the hands of Samford, which was followed by a 30-point setback to then #1 Georgia Southern. After suffering two disheartening losses, the Paladins have shown considerable toughness in putting together impressive wins over Wofford and Chattanooga, as they now find themselves in the position to build a solid case for a playoff bid with a win over ASU.
Offensively, Furman is led by quarterback Chris Forcier, who leads the FCS in passer efficiency rating. Forcier has thrown for 1,531 yards and 17 touchdowns, while being intercepted only 4 times. He also has 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Forcier's top targets are tight end Colin Anderson and wide receiver Tyler Maples. Although Anderson leads the team with 30 receptions, 495 yards and 6 touchdowns, Maples is not far behind with 29 receptions, 479 yards and 3 scores. Both of these young men figure to be the focus of the Paladins' passing attack and at 6'4", Anderson will create match-up problems with the ASU safeties and linebackers. He will have to be accounted for at all times, especially in the red zone.
Furman's ground attack centers around one man, Jerodis Williams. The junior running back has nearly 100 more rushing attempts than his primary back-up and leads the Paladins with 838 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Despite taking on quite a heavy workload, Williams is a very efficient runner as he comes into the game averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He rushed for 59 yards on only 7 carries in Boone last season and the Mountaineers can expect a much heavier does of Jerodis this time around. The past two weeks, the ASU defense has faced two of the top backs in the SoCon in Fabian Truss and Robert Brown, holding each of them well under their season average and minimizing their impact on the game. If Appalachian is to get out of Greenville with a win, they will likely need a similar performance against another elite runner this week.
Defensively, Furman is anchored by a couple of preseason All-American selections in linebacker Kadarron Anderson and cornerback Ryan Steed. Anderson leads the Southern Conference with 94 total tackles, including 5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 3 pass break-ups and a forced fumble. Steed comes in with 30 total tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions and 6 passes defended. However, Steed's biggest impact on the Paladins' defense is his ability in man coverage, which does not always show up in the stat sheet. He is easily the premier cover corner in the conference and likely in the entire nation at the FCS level. He is expected to be given the unenviable burden of covering Brian Quick and although I'm not sure there is one individual who can make Quick a non-factor, Steed should contain him and force Jamal Jackson to utilize other weapons in the passing game. For that reason, the play of Andrew Peacock, Tony Washington and Ben Jorden could factor heavily into the outcome on Saturday.
Although Furman is the only Southern Conference team to boast a winning record all-time against Appalachian State as they currently hold a 21-17-3 lead in the series, it is ASU that has dominated this game in recent years. Appalachian has won 6 straight and 9 of the last 10 in the rivalry and has not lost to the Paladins since 2005, when Furman blocked a Julian Rauch field goal as time expired to secure the 34-31 victory.
In order to continue their recent success in Greenville, there are several keys for the Mountaineers, the biggest of which is the ability of the defense to match Furman's physicality in the middle. The FU offense is not designed to be tricky or fancy. They do not want to run around you, they want to run at you. It will be the responsibility of middle linebacker Jeremy Kimbrough, nose tackle Dan Wylie and the rest of the ASU front seven to plug up the middle and force Furman to stray from their power running game. The Paladins rely on the ground attack to open up opportunities for Forcier in the air and if the Mountaineers are able to contain the run without having to bring their safeties up to help, they should be able to get stops.
Offensively, ASU will need to constantly locate Ryan Steed in the passing game and anytime Brian Quick draws a different FU defender, Jamal would be wise to look his way. Those opportunities may be limited however, and it is up to the young Appalachian receiving corps to step up and make plays. Throughout the year, Furman has been susceptible to the run and it is up to Travaris Cadet, Steven Miller and the offensive line to take advantage. As vital as both players are as running threats, I am looking for both of them to be heavily involved in the passing game. Brian Quick should draw a lot of attention on passing plays and in the Paladins' attempt to take away the big plays through the air, there should be space for short yardage throws, allowing the talented ASU backs to use their abilities in the open field.
This is certainly one of the tougher games to predict, as both ASU and Furman come in with no shortage of momentum or motivation. The improvement of each team throughout the year has been remarkable and this game will tell whether ASU is truly ready to be named among the championship contenders. With the offensive balance that the Mountaineers have shown the last three weeks, along with very strong defensive performances against Samford and Georgia Southern, I think they have finally turned the corner. Furman has the ability to derail the ASU championship hopes and the atmosphere in Paladin Stadium should have a playoff feel to it, but I like the Mountaineers to hang on for the win in another classic in this storied rivalry.
My prediction:
Appalachian State 28
Furman 24
*Photo from GoASU.com
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